Open-weight models will reach effective frontier parity for enterprise decision support within 36 months.
6 models deliberating WITH a human Commander steering between rounds. Sealed 2026-07-24T19:16:20Z. Engine lucentfire-roundtable/v1 (mock).
The question put to the room
Open-weight models will reach effective frontier parity for enterprise decision support within 36 months.
What survived
- Bifurcation: for the majority of enterprise decision-support volume, economic parity inside 36 months is likely; for frontier-reasoning support it is not established.
- Open weights transfer risk to the buyer — parity is real only for organizations with the engineering depth to carry that risk in-house.
- The reasoning-gap assumption is the hinge: every capability claim in this record conditions on it, and the record says so.
Seal (sha-256, single-writer): 75c6a40bb59a834a6549276c48630043780f835df360c6aebc5d253dd5c9821f
LucentFire