Forward paper-trade call #1 (pre-registered protocol, LucentFire x Polymarket): Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Market mid-price at analysis time: 0.056 (5.6%), ~$100k liquidity, resolution ~145 days out. The room must deliver: a probability (point + range), the single crux, the falsifier that would move the estimate, and an adversarial read of the resolution criteria versus the crowd's likely reading. The council reasons WITHOUT live news � reason from structural knowledge and state your information cutoff honestly.
6 models deliberating WITH a human Commander steering between rounds. Sealed 2026-08-07T17:15:17.570Z. Engine lucentfire-roundtable/v1 (live).
The question put to the room
Forward paper-trade call #1 (pre-registered protocol, LucentFire x Polymarket): Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Market mid-price at analysis time: 0.056 (5.6%), ~$100k liquidity, resolution ~145 days out. The room must deliver: a probability (point + range), the single crux, the falsifier that would move the estimate, and an adversarial read of the resolution criteria versus the crowd's likely reading. The council reasons WITHOUT live news � reason from structural knowledge and state your information cutoff honestly.
What survived
- The verbatim criteria (post-election, sworn-in, interim/caretaker excluded) void every non-electoral and later-rotation path the room floated in Round 1 — Lieberman must be the FIRST PM sworn in after the next election.
- Kingmaker/pivot leverage does not convert into the premiership: small-party pivots historically extract ministries, conscription law and vetoes, not slot one, so fragmentation is necessary but far from sufficient.
- The 'Other' bucket (no qualifying PM by Dec 31, 2027) absorbs prolonged deadlock and a Netanyahu-continues-as-caretaker stalemate, adding asymmetric downside to Yes holders that the crowd likely underweights.
Seal (sha-256, single-writer): d9f9f48bf100391e3ece12a4c9330366876292c88f734e2562ff3d95509383d8
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