KILL THIS THESIS (do not improve it � break it): CROSS-MODEL DIVERGENCE IS A MEASURABLE UNCERTAINTY SIGNAL. Claim: when independently-trained frontier models from rival labs SPLIT on a claim, that claim fails at a materially higher rate than claims they CONVERGE on � and this divergence signal is (a) statistically provable with ~80 resolved claims for a first signal and ~250 for a publishable result, (b) structurally unavailable to any single model at any scale, and (c) uniquely credible from a party with no model of its own to sell, because no lab can honestly certify uncertainty about its ow
6 models deliberating WITH a human Commander steering between rounds. Sealed 2026-08-08T20:21:03.188Z. Engine lucentfire-roundtable/v1 (live).
The question put to the room
KILL THIS THESIS (do not improve it � break it): CROSS-MODEL DIVERGENCE IS A MEASURABLE UNCERTAINTY SIGNAL. Claim: when independently-trained frontier models from rival labs SPLIT on a claim, that claim fails at a materially higher rate than claims they CONVERGE on � and this divergence signal is (a) statistically provable with ~80 resolved claims for a first signal and ~250 for a publishable result, (b) structurally unavailable to any single model at any scale, and (c) uniquely credible from a party with no model of its own to sell, because no lab can honestly certify uncertainty about its ow
What survived
- Unanimity among correlated frontier models is at least partly a shared-prior detector, so the metric is silent or misleading exactly on contaminated/canonically-wrong claims — the stratum where an uncertainty signal would matter most.
- Claim (a)'s power arithmetic is wrong: statistical power lives in the divergent cell, so ~80 claims yields on the order of ~16 informative items and cannot support a first signal.
- Leg (b) is decidable by one cheap pre-registered experiment: dispersion-matched single-model self-consistency entropy vs cross-model split, paired DeLong AUC at n≥500 on resolved markets conditioned on contemporaneous market price.
Seal (sha-256, single-writer): 532bef01aab0a7593d16984daf6ea940394a3deb5617a57f8efe9d7d7e546c9e
LucentFire