Is Bitcoin doomed because advances in AI and quantum computing will soon break its cryptography? If so, roughly when might this occur, and are people already planning for it?
6 models deliberating WITH a human Commander steering between rounds. Sealed 2026-07-28T00:01:13.989Z. Engine lucentfire-roundtable/v1 (live).
The question put to the room
Is Bitcoin doomed because advances in AI and quantum computing will soon break its cryptography? If so, roughly when might this occur, and are people already planning for it?
What survived
- AI contributes nothing to breaking ECDLP directly; its only role is second-order — faster ML syndrome decoders, control optimization, and exploiting key-management/side-channel mistakes.
- Exposure is partial, not total: only outputs with revealed public keys (~4–6M BTC in early P2PK and reused addresses) are immediately vulnerable to Shor, while Grover's halving of SHA-256 to 128-bit security is a non-event.
- A preemptive in-protocol migration to post-quantum output types (BIP-360 / P2QRH, ML-DSA or hash-based signatures) is the only viable contingency, and it forces an unconsented political decision about freezing unmigratable dormant coins.
Seal (sha-256, single-writer): 3e764860e3f3934ab2aead5323da6b50ee7d6d27982d05866fd1cbd43fcd5843
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